As we head into the 2024 elections, the fight for reliable polling data is more competitive than ever. The political landscape is rapidly shifting, and traditional polling methods, like anything politically related, are increasingly under scrutiny. Voter behavior has become more dynamic, making accurate predictions challenging for analysts relying on limited data sources. Phone and door-to-door surveys, once the bedrock of election season, have seen significant declines in participation. Artificial Intelligence has become a major tool changing how we gather and interpret massive amounts of data, providing more nuanced insights into what the electorate may be thinking.
AI's ability to review vast amounts of data quickly and effectively is its greatest strength in the context of election polling. While traditional polling methods rely heavily on small sample sizes and direct questions to predict outcomes, AI systems can analyze much more than just polling responses. AI isn’t just taking over the task of gathering data; it’s enhancing how pollsters ask questions, track responses, and analyze trends in real time.
For example, in a recent study by Siena College Research Institute, AI-powered tools like the chatbot Engage enabled pollsters to gather insights quickly and efficiently, even from those classified as "persuadable voters." Engage doesn't just collect responses, it interacts with voters, asking follow-up questions to delve deeper into their belief systems. According to Leib Litman, co-CEO of CloudResearch, AI allows pollsters to “interview thousands of people within a matter of a couple of hours, and then... analyze it and derive the insights very, very quickly.”
Another groundbreaking AI method being used is sentiment analysis. This technology allows pollsters to analyze the tone and meaning behind publicly available data, such as social media posts, news articles, or even voting records.
While a vast majority of Americans feel negatively about AI and its potential impact on their futures, especially regarding job opportunities, there’s more optimism in specific sectors. Heartland Forward worked with AI-powered polling group Aaru to measure public perception on artificial intelligence by scraping demographic data and publicly available opinions from platforms like Twitter. According to Heartland Forward’s survey across nine states, more than 75% of respondents were skeptical or even scared of AI.
The study highlights the complexity of public opinion on AI. While there are widespread concerns about job displacement and privacy risks—87% of respondents doubted AI’s ability to make unbiased ethical decisions. How will this impact public perception of polling data shifting to an AI model?
While AI’s clearly has demonstrated strengths, it’s important to recognize that this technology is still in development, and its results are not always flawless. Polling, whether AI-driven or traditional, always carries a margin of error, especially in highly competitive elections. However, AI offers a more comprehensive approach to analyzing public sentiment, using data far beyond traditional surveys.
This technology could also level the playing field for smaller campaigns or less well-known candidates, who may not have access to traditional polling services. With AI, they can gather insights that help guide their strategy more effectively, making the political landscape more democratic and responsive.
Additionally, AI-driven polling can also help pollsters access harder-to-reach populations. Bruce Schneier, a security technologist, adds that AI could fill in the gaps when traditional polls leave certain groups out, either because they’re less responsive or harder to reach through phone calls. "The science of polling is huge and complicated, and adding AI to the mix is another tiny step down a pathway we’ve been walking for a long time using, you know, fancy math combined with human data," Schneier explains.
Looking ahead to 2024, AI will undoubtedly play a significant role in shaping how polls are conducted and interpreted In this election and beyond. Its ability to process a multitude of data points, correct for bias, and provide real-time insights offers exciting potential for both campaigns and voters. However, as with any technology, AI-driven polling must be used in conjunction with traditional methods and human oversight to ensure the most accurate and reliable results.
Realizing that every vote matters, the ability to gauge public opinion accurately is more important than ever. AI might just be the key to getting us closer to a true understanding of where the electorate stands.